At the stroke of midnight 9th November 2016, the now Prime Minister of India imposed an undeclared emergency on India. What prompted him to do this? What would be the economic impact is a big question we have unanswered.
Here is what he has conveyed in his unprecedented address to the nation at 20:00hrs 8th November 2016. “To break the grip of corruption and black money, we have decided that the five hundred rupee and thousand rupee currency notes presently in use will no longer be legal tender from midnight tonight, that is 8th November 2016.
So, in this fight against corruption, black money, fake notes and terrorism, in this movement for purifying our country, will our people not put up with difficulties for some days? I have full confidence that every citizen will stand up and participate in this ‘mahayagna’.”
I wonder even in normal sense one could question his motive reading the above lines. But why so much of shout outs and promo for such an arrogant announcement.
- The prime reason he gives for corruption is the high value notes of 500 and 1000 denomination. If that’s the case, why would he introduce another 500 and 2000 which is of higher denomination than the already existing 1000. Will this not be easier for black money hoarders, corrupt officials and terrorists to handle 2000 note? Then why is this surgical strike on economy?
- Is the Prime Minister so sure that the newly introduced currency is to be fool proof and no one would be able to replicate it in future? Any grand safety measure taken? Like how their fake influencers and media promoted that the new notes carry GPS tags let alone iPhone10 with a Jio 4G connection inbuilt.
- Even though counterfeit notes will be reduced for a day or worst case for a week, with reintroduction of 500 and now 2000 what guarantee does that Prime Minister or his puppet, the new RBI governor could give that those notes can’t be replicated. Considering the fact that visuals of 2000 rupee notes got leaked days before the official announcement, I can hang upside down before vouching for their security measure.
For those who understand what is Black money and how it’s accumulated they would very well know Black money is not just the cash hidden inside their bed but also the accumulated lands, gold and even the bulk deposits in Swiss Banks.
So why this advertisement drama by the famous “Coat-wala” Narendra Modi – Let’s try and understand his hidden agenda.
The all-important UP Elections is coming up. BJP garnered 72 of 80 seats in UP in 2014. But their election promises are yet to be fulfilled. Their main propaganda of bringing back the Black money stash from abroad and depositing it in every citizen’s accounts has already been proved bogus. They wanted to show that they are doing something on black money. So, this fake drama of demonetization in the name of Black money and corruption.
So, who is Modi fooling in the name of corruption? – the same citizen about whom his planning commission declared as being spending their lives with Rs.32 a day.
Again, this Lord or Don or whatever he proclaims himself to be against corruption has no answer for the following report by Indian Express. You ask him – and he will be on his next flight to some country and bring in some old concept with new names. Swachh Bharat, Daddy’s Money, Mummy’s Food etc.
Here is that Indian express report – “twenty-nine state-owned banks wrote off a total of Rs 1.14 lakh crore of bad debts between financial years 2013 and 2015, much more than they had done in the preceding nine years.” RBI refused to give the names of the beneficiaries. We can’t imagine that that the largesse went small loan holders. If it isn’t corruption, what else is?”
His explanation of against corruption, black money and terrorism falls flat on its face. Now before going into the major hidden agenda, read Modi’s reasoning again specially the second paragraph. “Purifying the country”. The world heard these words years back from a man from Germany.
Public Sector Banks
Read the following facts first
- Market capitalization of public sector banks fell from 4.5L in January 2015 to 2.7L in January 2016.
- Public sector banks are sitting over INR 7L crore stressed assets and that includes non-performing assets and restructured loans.
- As per Hindu Businessline, Investor confidence over public sector banks is shaken due to their low performance index.
- As per Business Standard, RBI had to buy INR 2.1L crore worth bonds in the past 12 months from the secondary market to help banks come in a neutral liquidity zone.
- As per Credit Suisse, the currency in circulation increased by INR 2.6L crore over the past 12 months.
Now only thing you could understand from all the above facts is that, the banks are facing a liquidity crisis. Unless banks lend money, they can’t create more money. Since banks have slowed down their lending exercise, enough money is not getting generated, and the gap has widened to a multiyear high.
Ever since Modi became a Prime Minister, he wanted to “Make India a Manufacturing hub”. Sounds like you have read this line recently? Yes, same Donald Trump’s Mantra. But he failed to the lowest level. Not only did the manufacturing output did not pick up, but actually fell over the past few years. RBI was helpless as they didn’t have enough liquidity to pool out. And the result a fear of rising inflation.
So, what is your next move to increase Bank’s liquidity. That last and final option of calling back all the money in circulation and deposit in banks there by helping the dying banking industry, and their chance of increasing the bank’s liquidity after this so-called surgery or surgical strike on economy is over.
As per RBI press conference, post PM’s announcement – “there are 16.5 billion ‘500-rupee’ notes and 6.7 billion ‘1000-rupee’ notes in circulation.” That is roughly INR 15L crores. And look at the timing of the announcement. Post Deepavali – the biggest Indian Festival, that resulted in a cash circulation of over INR 17L Crores.
Now this 15Lakh crore is sucked up into the system. And how it comes back? In fractions. Yes, there is a limit on your withdrawal for over a period of time. Means by this fractional banking, banks can lend several times of this amount. Sounds similar? Consider the example of freedom mobile phone. Collect all the money and then give it back after a period of time stating some reason. And what you do with that money in the meantime, is up to your own intelligence.
Who will benefit?
If you think the fellow public will be benefited over a period of time, you are the deadliest fool the country could see. Only the crony capitalists who supports and backs up the Modi regime, or even runs it, will be benefited. Need the latest recent example? Read PayTM’s tweet soon after the announcement.
PayTM also came up with a two-page jacket advertisement praising Modi on demonetization. Let’s not forget Modi was even the brand ambassador for Reliance Jio on all Newspapers some days back. Why would these corporate thank him spending such sum of money? Do they work for the welfare of people? Or do they get quality returns for doing these? It’s left to your understanding.
Modi wanted to be the PM who brings in currency less transactions in India. What he failed to understand is even the highly developed Sweden is not able to do that. And he expects India with 80% unorganized market to do that.
Idiots will come up with explanations of Aadhar card being promoted. But same idiots will forget the fact that BJP once opposed Aadhar card. Also, let us not discuss the influence of Reliance, their Jio, their free date ending on 31st December 2016 – the same deadline you have for exchanging your currency, reliance’s new venture into cloud computing and data backup, how Aadhar and your Jio call transactions are going to be stored there.
Where Modi Failed in this demonetization?
Modi was never a Prime Minister who analyses or thinks about a common man. Also, he just tries to copy what’s in other country without even analyzing the fact of if it would work in a country like India. Let alone plan for it.
I have read stories about Muhammad bin Tughluq changing the currency overnight. And now I have seen it live, when Narendra Modi did that.
People getting infuriated. Two days of complete banking ban. Limits on withdrawal when they reopen. What will someone do on emergency? A life support system would cost 75,000 per day. How would one manage that. And this is for someone with a bank account.
What about the rest 80% of the population who don’t have a bank account? The one’s who don’t have access to bank accounts? The local vendors and the unorganized sector which depends on cash transactions and never was into banking. How would they manage their daily life? What would be the difficulty they would face for making the “anti-national” notes with them “national”.
The traveler Prime Minister never thought of such issues, but just said please bear with the difficulties as it’s temporary. But is it temporary? The economic impact of this demonetization let me discuss on future posts.
Only thing I would like to tell Modi with the example he would understand – “A chaiwallah would prepare tea, mix every ingredient, only after lighting the stove.” Here you have announced everything and then declared bank holidays to make up for your announcement without even preparing for the outcome.
This demonetization is the biggest crony capitalist neo-liberalist coup that has ever taken place in India. Never doubt it, India will have to pay a heavy price for it.